Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
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Yeh pretty easy fold.
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Could you explain why?
My own thoughts upon further analysis: While there are several *possible* hands that villain might have that hurt me, most of them seem unlikely given villain's play. AsKs (or other big spades) wouldn't raise on that turn. 33, 44, and JJ are a concern, but 33 and 44 wouldn't raise PF, and it seems likely that any set would have re-raised on the turn, especially since I'd called the original 3-bet. He'd want to isolate the all-in and get me out of the pot in case I was drawing (which I was heh). From villain's play it seems he most likely has a middle PP (99/TT).
Either way, I'm getting 2.5:1 on his all-in bet. I only need to be ahead here 30% of the time to make calling this profitable, and I think that's probably the case.
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