[passion]

[ QUOTE ]
there's no piece of advice regularly given out by inexperienced SSNL players on this board that annoys me more than "push and hope".

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm revising my answer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i didn't read carefully enough and missed the diamond draw. i had read it as diamonds showing up with the turn 9...don't ask me how because on rereading, it's pretty clear.

i need to think about this some more. my intuition tells me that check here is better because the pot is already big and any bet i make ought to be a push. i don't want to leave myself $30 on a diamond river with a $120 pot. i don't like backing TPTK with my stack without a good read.

if he's on a draw, he has probably ~20% equity. if not he probably either has 4% or 96%, which we'll estimate as 0 and 100. his total equity has to be less than 33% to make betting correct because 2:1 is the worst odds we can lay him.

Eq = %drawing*.2 + %made hand winning

How often is he drawing? How often is he beating us? These are read dependant, but if we say 50 and 25 then his equity is about 35%.

I think it's close either way and in the end probably doesn't matter. Checking is probably lower variance because you can value bet if the river blanks and fold if it doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm taking this as an apology [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Passion