[kenberman]

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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Yes, Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax Indy. However, I'm assuming that any path to the SB involves the Colts.

So, I think Pitt-Denver-Indy is a worse path than Jax-Indy-Denver/Cincy/Pitt. Obviously, being #3 means you might not have to face the Colts (unlikely) and a better chance of hosting a championship game (unlikely)

I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

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Indy losing their first game and enabling the Pats to not only avoid the Colts, but get home field in the AFC Championship game is such a huge advantage, that it only needs to happen IMO a small % of the time to prefer that route. Say it's Indy vs. Cinci in round 2. The Colts would be....what?....11 point favorites? That's like 20% range chance of the Bengals winning. That's HUGE from the Patriots standpoint IMO.

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one huge factor which people don't realize/are discounting pretty heavily:

If the Pats are the #4 seed (and play Jax), that means a red-hot Pittsburgh team plays at Cinci. If Pittsburgh wins, then Pittsburgh goes to Indy for round 2 - not the Pats.

so, the #4 seed doesn't nec. mean Jax/Indy. it could very well be Jax/Denver.