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Okay, so I usually rely heavily on
Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.
However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?
USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?
Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.
West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?
Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.
I am so confused.
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I think the USC line is largely driven by the public, not to mention no one really knows what'll happen with their defense.
The PSU line I think is low, but I'm biased and staying out of this one.
The UGA/WVU line: I haven't watched WVU enough to comment.
ND/OSU: It did open at -5.5. I'm hoping public $ brings it down further so I can grab OSU.