If UTG is unknown (semi-laggy read) I think that if calling the river is a mistake, it is not a very big one. I played some .5/1 tonight just for kicks b/c I'm on a big downswing at 2/4 and 1/2, and I was just amazed how these 60VPIP/1-2AF types were playing.

EDIT: I also think that button overcalling makes pretty much no difference here. He has not been showing much aggression, and he seems retarded, so we have him beat a vast majority of the time.