Re: A Microsoft Interview Question (aka basic Bayes\' Theorem)
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Had he shot himself, are you better off spinning or not?
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For the love of God, spin! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
If he shot himself, you're 50/50 to die.
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Though this variant can be understood by considering two simple cases, it isn't easier than the original. The 1/3 chance to die from from spinning is the weighted average of this 1/2 and the probability from the original question, firing after the first chamber was empty. Since 1/2 is greater than 1/3, the chance to die from firing without spinning (1/4) must be less than 1/3.
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