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Old 05-03-2005, 02:14 AM
beernutz beernutz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: gulf coast
Posts: 908
Default Re: When is the nuts not the nuts?

[ QUOTE ]
It's a lesson in being observant and how not to play.
When I lead out the turn, and you are on the button with the current nut high but no draws you need to consider several situations, but each of them will lead to the same thing, you flat calling.
If I have a low draw and a flush draw I can be getting close to even money anyway. If I don't have the nuts, you don't want me folding. What you want is for me to bet the river into you again. If I do have the nuts, then there is no point at all you raising. So in the few situations where you are ahead raising with no draws wont achieve too much. In most situations however if you raise, you will get called. You then have to fold to any scare card river and a pot bet. The guy might have a set and a low draw, and the low flush card hits the river, he will take a shot at you with a pot bet and you will fold. The problem with saying you have x equity is that assumes when low hits you will always call if your high is good.
If UTG is bluffing though, you always want him to keep bluffing, so raising the turn costs money more often than not here, especially since if the guy doesn't fill up his set, he may believe it's good anyway since you didn't raise and pop the river once more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put yourself in the other player's shoes and consider the situation where his opponent has top set and no low or flush draw? Would you not raise them back on the turn even though you are probably a 3:1 favorite?

Personally I be praying such a person reraised me so I could put one or both of us all-in.
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