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Old 07-14-2005, 12:42 PM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Default Re: QQ - I keep bettin\'. He keeps calin\'. Overplayed?

Here is how my thought process would work to put him on a hand:
Preflop, he limps after a bunch of limpers - he probably has a small pocket pair or some suited something.
Flop, he calls my bet on a low flop with a straight and flush draw on board - he is either slowplaying trips or a full house, he has something marginal like a low overpair and isn't sure where he stands, or he has a draw (straight or more likely flush)

So now on the turn, I am (still) behind trips, I am behind a flush draw (which just hit), I am behind 55 and now I am behind 99 as well. Not TOO many things I am beating now. Most likely hand I am still ahead of is something like 88 or TT. Outside possibility of something like 56 or 54.

So, since I think his most likely hand on the flop was either trips/full house, or flush draw, I think I am probably behind on the turn. In addition, opponents here are quite passive, particularly with marginal hands. I would be extremely surprised if someone, for instance, bet out strong when checked to if they held 56. I would expect them to check behind. So, unless I had a read of someone being very aggro (in which I would c/r the turn all-in) I am going to c/f this turn. There just isn't very much I'm beating once the flush hits and the hands that I AM beating I expect him to check behind with on the turn almost 100% of the time.
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