"You know, I don't like your original assumption that, as part of the free money we can get in this world for the good fortune of having been born, if you buy and hold an index you will make money. "


I don't think I ever stated that I had this assumption. I'm asking if individual investing can beat index funds. Whether index funds are up or down, this question still applies. If the NDX is down 10% over 5 years time, can an individual investor, however much the investor trades, beat that mark given he is paying more vig than the index fund?