"how do you figure it necessarily cost him 25 points"


Based on prices at the first opportunities to trade after he made each of his two calls.


"his indicators seem to be more sensitive than a one year time frame would indicate"


Also more sensitive than a two-month timeframe would indicate.


"right but aren't you nit picking?"


No. A price and time prediction should be a prediction of the price and time at which you expect to get new information. He never gave the impression that this was anything but a two-month trade, where the passage of time, or reaching the low, would invalidate the trade. He has completely changed the distribution of returns, and the appropriate level of capital to commit to the trade.


"comment to him was that in a year stocks would be lower not higher is probably irrelevant to him"


He said "It's here." That implied something long awaited. People do no long await things which are over in a week, or even in a month or two.


eLROY