"He could very easily have said "I expect the S&P to break the low before I get new information."


right but aren't you nit picking? nobody would fail to change their mind if they werent presented with new information. thats a given i think.


"?What good is a prediction, if you fail to predict you will get new information, and that the information will cost you 25 points?"


how do you figure it necessarily cost him 25 points? ok it would have been better to be in 25 points ago but who the hell can pick all the inflection points in the market flawlessly? if he is right and the market moves in his direction and he makes money the issue becomes was the risk worth taking. as far as the information that changes his mind how can he predict when he will get it? ok his system may or may not be very good. it may be good enough to make him money though.


"A day trade is simply a prediction about how soon you will know to exit."


sure.


your comment to him was that in a year stocks would be lower not higher is probably irrelevant to him since his indicators seem to be more sensitive than a one year time frame would indicate.