[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
This may be a leak but I always defend my big blind with any 3-draw that contains a deuce and can still make the nuts. It creates some interesting situations after the first draw.

- Lets say I defend against a button raiser who plays well, is aggresive, and will draw pretty rough in heads up pots. I start with 27. He choses to draw one (which could very well be 3679 as he has done often before) After the first draw I end up with 257. Is it correct (with 4 little bets in pot so far) to continue here. What about a diffrent opponent who is less tricky and is drawing a lot smoother than the first opponent?

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I would continue 100% of the time here. Suppose you had defended with 257 instead of 27; your opponent drew one and you bricked. Would you then decide to fold for one bet? I hope not. Most of the time you are only one card behind, and you are certainly drawing live. (The tricky case is really when you hit an 8 or 9 instead of a 3, 4, or 6 the next draw.)

In a previous thread about this, timprov made a good point. If you fold to 1-card draws here your opponent has a very powerful semisnow to throw at you.

Suppose every time that the button raises and you draw three from the big blind, the button draws 1, no matter what his hand. You check and he bets. How often do you need to call to keep him honest?

Suppose you only call with a 1-card draw to a 7 or 8, or a pat hand. That is 2 good cards (from 86543) out of the three you drew. 20 good cards = 27 bad cards, so you get two or three bad cards with probability
27/47*26/46 (bbX) = 0.325
27/47*20/46*26/45 (bgb) = 0.144
20/47*27/46*26/45 (gbb) = 0.144
= 61%.

Thus, Villian's bet wins him the pot about 60% of the time. He is risking one bet to win 4.5 (4.5:1 pot odds), but getting 2:3 odds. Clearly, drawing one when he sees you draw three is enormously profitable for Villian, if you only call with strong 1-card draws. (Villian probably has to fold the next round if he doesn't dramatically improve after abandoning the semisnow--- denying you implied odds--- but that's fine, he will still win in the long run in this particular situation.)

Against an opponent who tries this bluff every time you must call the follow-up bet at least 80% of the time, so Villian only gets 4:1 odds. Against a more straightforward opponent you can more easily find a fold.

This is one reason I dislike defending OOP with these hands. I am more willing to steal with them or defend against the SB, or even limp in on the button in a family pot. I am more likely to play 223xx or 227xx than a naked 27xxx.