[SumZero]

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Against pros, I'd happily move in here. A pro would never mini-raise in that spot though and a table of pros would be unlikely to all end up so shortstacked.

Against a table like you're at, I'd be fairly certain I was behind and fold even though I think you're theoretically quite justified in pushing.

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I agree a pro would basically never min-raise here. I disagree about the table of pros never ending up so short stacked though as if they played in a turbo tournament like this I think a decent percentage of the people have to end up short stacked as the blinds move up so fast and on certain late tournaments there are no steal chances and a couple of people (different people each hand) are all in on every hand. So I agree there would be fewer of them (like the final table would not have been 8 short stacks and 2 ok stacks) but I think even some pros would have been short stacked here (maybe 5 or 6 short stacks on the final table).

[ QUOTE ]
Given your particular table, if you think there's some decent chance the villain and others will fold, I'm much happier going all in. I think your hand loses its value if the villain folding isn't a way you can win. Enough so that I would fold. That's probably just my personal sense of bad judgement though.

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BB, the short stack, was playing too tightly. Villain had made some odd folds to raises occasionally, so I thought I had some small folding equity (although would have probably had a lot more on a stop-and-go if he doesn't hit).

So if we make a couple of simplifying assumptions and assume that:

1. If I fold then 1 of 3 things can happen:

1a BB goes all in, is called the extra ~$15K and loses
1b BB goes all in, is called the extra ~$15K and wins
1c BB folds

2. If I move all in the BB will fold (which is what actually happened) and then:

2a UTG calls the all in and wins
2b UTG calls the all in and loses
2c UTG folds

I think all of the above assumptions are pretty good *except* the assumption that the BB folds when I move in. If the BB has a top hand he will call all-in. But he probably should only do it on absolute premium hands given the potential battle between the 2nd and 3rd place people.

According to ICM my EV for the above is:

1a: $263.64
1b: $248.38
1c: $251.35

2a: $155
2b: $345.34
2c: $306.70

so if I fold I'm looking at an EV in the mid $250s. If I split the all-ins into 20% of the time all folds, 35% UTG calls and I win, 45% UTG calls and I lose (which represents me having a 43.75% win rate against his calling range) then my EV is $251.96.

I think that 20/35/45 is probably slightly optimistic but not by a lot (if you change it to 10/40/50 it becomes EV $246.31).

So I think the prefered line, using the assumptions above (which include no stop-and-go try), is to fold.

Actual hand results:

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In the actual hand I went all-in and was called by A8o and was a 43.4% underdog (EV of $237.61 once he calls).

flop came TT8 (so the stop-and-go wouldn't have worked any differently as he'd be a fool to not call that with his A8o IMO).

I didn't hit my Q,J, or 9 outs on turn or river and was out in 4th.
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