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sometimes it is best to rely on your instincts and ignore systems/trends, etc.

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I hope I never learn that. No disrespect, but I don't think the 49ers +16 was bad because it was overanalyzed, and the Colts -16 good because it conforms with our "gut". NoChance makes a good point about the rookie QB, and that was the deciding factor in this one. But really, Barlow had a pretty good game, Manning was nothing special, and the whole 9er squad actually played pretty hard. All of which was forecast by those who liked the points. A few less throws into triple coverage - actually, anything other than an unmitigated disaster of a QB's debut - and the 9ers keep within two TDs. I don't feel the least bit remorseful about that bet.

One more thing:

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I will not ignore any future "sports intuition" or whatever you want to call it, no matter how obvious a play seems.

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This ain't a very 2+2-like opinion, but I hope it works for you.