[NoChance]

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sometimes it is best to rely on your instincts and ignore systems/trends, etc. I convinced myself to get behind SF at +16 because "that's way to many points to give to a home underdog". all the while, I was also thinking of a much deeper, statistical analysis: the niners are terrible, the cotls are more than solid.

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I agree with this but there were signs:
1. SF's QB was making his NFL debut (this historically is almost always a disaster)
2. SF was beat up badly with injuries in the secondary.
3. I still feel Indy is not quite on track offensively yet. They have not needed it yet because of the easy schedule.
4. SF only crossed the 50 yard line twice against a horrible Arizona team the week before.