eh
<u>the effect of someone making a "bad" call on the turn.</u>
this isn't a hand post or anything, just a very random thing i decided to do on christmas eve because i was bored. most of you will be bored to death by reading this. it is nothing new. it's simply an exercise in accounting for our opponents implied odds. to be honest, it is neither useful nor practical.
You have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raise UTG. CO coldcalls, button coldcalls, the small blind calls with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and the big blind folds. Four players see a flop.
Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(9 SB)</font>
SB checks, you bet, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.
Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 BB)</font>
SB checks, you bet, Button folds, SB calls (at 7:1)
he is not bad enough to pay off with a rivered 9 or 7. are you happy that he called your turn bet getting 7:1?
he has 4 outs. he will hit on the river 4/(52 - our 2 hole cards - his 2 hole cards - the 4 board cards) times, which is 4/44 or 9.1% of the time.
call X the pot size
call Z his chance to hit
when he folds the turn, we win X (the pot).
when he calls the turn, we win the pot plus his turn call when he misses and lose two bets when he hits (because he will check raise):
(1 - Z)(X + 1 BB) - Z(2 BB)
in this example, Z is 9.1%.
(1 - .091)(X + 1) - .091(2) = X tells us the pot size when his call ends up exactly the same for us as if he were to fold.
.909X + .909 - .182 = X becomes
.727 = .091X
X = just about 8 BB. so, yes. when he calls at 7:1 we are happy.
if you look at it from his side, his implied odds are 2 BB on his draw (since we're assuming we're only calling the c/r). he will hit 9.1% of the time, which is just about 10:1. so his call is neutral.
if you 3-bet the river and call a cap, he can make a neutral call at 6 BB. if this were the case, you are not happy that he calls the bet at 7:1.
whatever
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