If you are sure you are going to take the doubling up option twice, and not quit if you won the first time, then they are exactly the same. 1/4 of the time you will quadruple up with either option, the other 3/4 of the time you will bust out.

I'd like to hear another way of interpreting this that sticks to probability though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]