Last week: 4-2 (and would have been 5-1 had Bulger not gone down) with a win on the Game of the Week
Season: 16-13 overall, 4-2 on Game of the Week.
This week, I'm not exceedingly happy about any of the picks. Game of the week was a tossup this week between Detroit and Philly, but I'm going with my first instinct. GotW in name only as I'm reccommending two unit plays on the first two games, and one unit plays on picks 3 & 4.
All lines current as of posting from Bodog, but please lineshop aggressively.
Detroit +3 at Cleveland
4/6 Yahoo "experts" have Cleveland here as well as a slight majority of the public according to wagerline. Detroit has been playing tenacious defense, especially against the pass and Cleveland is a pass-oriented team with a struggling quarterback. The Browns have been passing the ball nearly twice as much as they run it, leading to seven sacks in the last two weeks. The Lions defense has 10 interceptions on the season. Even if Kevin Jones is out, Detroit still has big-play potential in Bryson at the #2 RB. The Browns have the 27th-ranked defense overall in the NFL and must prepare against both Harrington and Garcia at quarterback. Detroit has been struggling on offense but that's been against three of the NFL's top defenses (Tampa, Baltimore, Carolina) and their "better than they've looked" offense should finally have a coming out party as they're able to run all over a terrible defense. Defensively Detroit will frustrate Dilfer with several sacks and a 1-2 big interceptions. Game of the week. 21-17 Detroit for the outright win.
Philly -3.5 over San Diego
LT is certainly looking hot on the ground, but the Chargers air attack is not. Philly blows out to an early lead at home, helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind, and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack. This is a pivotal game for Philly, which will move to 4-2 with the win. The Eagles are coming off a big 33-10 loss to Dallas and then a bye week, so they'll have plenty of motivation to come out strong. Andy Reid is 2-0 at home this season, 2-0 vs. the AFC West this season, and, most importantly Philly is 6-0 after the bye during Reid’s reign. Defensive tackle Darwin Walker should return for the Eagles and that will be a huge help for the defensive line. The Chargers are also banged up after a physical game at Oakland and are flying cross-country. 27-21 Philly.
Dallas +3.5 at Seattle. Seattle is one of the top four biased picks this week on Wagerline (more than 65% on their side) which makes this a public perception game in my opinion. 100% of ESPN analyst picks are for Seattle as well as 5/6 USA today picks Seattle doesn't have a strong offensive line, and Dallas should be able to get serious pressure on Hasselbeck. Seattle is also facing an emotional issue with the Ken Hamlin nightclub assult and will be starting a very weak Marquand Manuel at safety, which Bledsoe and Meeshawn/Glenn should be able to exploit. The Cowboys have looked decently strong in the last two weeks and I look for them to make this a close game if not win outright. 24-21 Seattle for the Dallas cover.
Washington -13 over San Fran
I can't imagine that the Niners have come up with anything for Alex Smith. The Redskins are hot offensively and should be fired up for a home game after last week's tough loss to the Chiefs. San Fran is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. If you need a good one-week defensive pickup in your fantasy league, take a strong look at Washington this week. This would also be the most straightfoward suicide pool pick, assuming you've still got Washington to pick. Would also be an easy game to hedge with a moneyline bet on San Fran if you do pick Wash as the suicide pick. Anyways, Santana Moss scores two touchdowns here, the Niners continue to suck, and the Redskins roll to an easy 28-10 win.
As usual, all picks archived on my poker blog (
performify.com) if you want to go back through them. Any updates due to late developments will be posted in both places.