View Single Post
  #10  
Old 10-24-2005, 06:59 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL

Hi Danenania-

I'm afraid of monsters too, going back to age 5 and a fear of scary creatures in the closet. But most the time they're imaginary, and losing sleep, or potential value when you have a set, is irrational. You're running into an overset maybe one out of 30 times (no I don't have exact math on this but it was chatted about recently in the probability forum.) Because oversets are rare, I want to get in as many bets as possible without spewing.

Hand 1: Keep betting. I want 3 more bets in the pot here with my under full.
His range appears to be AA-TT, AK, AKs maybe AQs. Could he bet AJs here preflop, if he perceived MP3 to be raising light, or does he think that much? Someone with an 8 % PFR doesn't 3-bet pocket 8s unless he's doing it against a suspected steal, but you haven't indicated whether MP3 makes moves. J8 is of course not realistic. Villain has a high enough aggression factor he's easily waiting until the turn to raise his AA-QQ. Also, his fear that you have the jack is probably countered by the fact that you bet the turn - if you really had trips you might be inclined to C/R there. His line is also consistent with AJs, if indeed he'd raise that preflop. I say 3-bet the turn. If he caps it, call it and call down his river bet. If he just calls, bet the river and call his raise if there is one. Anything more than 3 bets and I have an uncomfortable feeling we're beat all too often here.

Hand 2: This one feels more like he's beating us. Still, we have a set and because UTG didn't raise, KQ seems a whole lot more likely than KK (wouldn't he limp/rr that?). QQ is a very possible hand here esp with 1 % pfr. More reads would help. As is I think we're beat but there's 9 ways to make KQ, against 3 ways for KK and 3 ways for QQ. Because you titled this "Monsters are Real" I'm advocating calling down. In the heat of the moment however, I'm probably capping it and calling his river bet. Getting 1-2 bets in here seems best, although I'm not convinced a player with .5 AF 3-bets top two pair.

By the way, I'm new to HUSH, but is there a reason you're posting ring game questions in this forum?
Reply With Quote