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Old 08-07-2005, 03:29 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Tool or formula for risk of ruin?

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Thank's but that formula is really confusing for me. I tried going over it in a calculator a bunch of times but can't work it out right.

What would a basic risk of ruin formula of a close to average player making 1bb/hr single tabling 5/10 with a $1000 bankroll be.

I'm trying to figure this out for someone else. I think he plays 6max on pokerstars. Thanks.

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Again, this depends heavily on his standard deviation, but let's assume it is 10 bb for 1 hr, which might be typical of a 1 bb/hr winner. Then his $1000 bankroll at 5/10 is 100 bb, and his risk of going broke is

exp(-2*1*100/10^2) = 13.5%.

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I just noticed that you said he plays 6 max. That could easily make his standard deviation significantly higher, perhaps twice has high, but you should really measure it. Poker Tracker software will compute your standard deviation and your risk of ruin; however, if it gives you a significantly different risk of ruin than the formula I gave you, then don't use it, as this has been found to be computed wrong in one other software package.
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