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If you know your opponent holds at least one ace, the flop is A 9 6, and you hold AT, then there is one way your opponent can hav AA, eight each for AK through AJ, and six each for A9 and A6, for a total of 37 ways you can be beat on the flop. There are six ways your opponent can have AT for a tie. There are eight ways each for A8 and A5-A2 for a total of 48 ways you can have your opponent beat.

When all is said and done you are something like an 6:5 equity favorite on the flop.

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Yes, I said in the OP that on the flop you are "about 50/50". Your numbers are more correct though, as I knew you would still be ahead most of the time. 6:5 seems more accurate.

But when the turn and river also bring uncoordinated undercards, you become something like a 2:1 dog by showdown. Right?