Re: $55 bubble hand.
If you call and lose, you get 0. If you call and win, you have about twice as much as the other two, giving you about a 50% chance of winning. As a gross apoximation, let's say your EV is .4 if you call and win. 77 is going to be let's say 55% to win in this situation. So 55% of the time you win .4, and 45% of the time you win 0. This averages out to a little over .2 If you fold, your EV, without assuming you play any better than your opponents, is .25. So it's easy to see that folding is bad.
You can run this by ICM to get more accurate numbers, but suffice it to say that you need a stronger hand to call in this situation, because the cost of losing is so high. If you lose .25 when you call and lose, but only win .15 when you call and win, you are risking 5 to win 3, which means your calling hands have to be 5 to 3 favorites over whatever range the pusher is pushing with just to break even. Against a random hand, 77 is just barely above that, so if UTG has any standards whatsoever for pushing, calling with 77 will be -EV.
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