[Easy E]

Flame away!

* dan harrington - What are his chances of making the final table in 2005, assuming a field of 5000? Say final 10 to simplify the math. The exactly average player's chances are 1/500. What are dan's?

<font color="blue"> 1/600, based on regression to the mean. Based on pure skill (meaning, talent, experience, intangibles) I'd put Dan H at 1/250. I would put him higher, but I think his somewhat less aggressive style will make it less likely that he'll catch the lucky hands in big pots to give him the chips to survive.

* I'll let you pick some number of players. If a single one of those players wins a bracelet at the 2005 WSOP, you win the bet. How many players do you need to list before you are a favorite in this bet?
2000 of the players that I feel were most likely to win (i.e be above average, so with a chance between 1/250 and 1/167) based on a field of 5000.
I still don't think I'd be a "favorite" but I'll take that as close enough to bet on.... not for big money however.

* How much positive equity does the very best player have in whichever currently existing $5K+ tournament you believe has the weakest field? Ignore juice. The exactly average player gets paid back his $X buyin on average. How good is the best? 3X? 5X? 10X? 20X? More?

I'll say 1 1/3 X of the average player... and that's a gamble.

* Two tournament players each play 100 large field tournaments. In the end, player A has averaged a profit of 0.5 buyins/tournament and player B has averaged 1.5 buyins/tournament. With what percentage confidence can you say that player B was actually playing with higher EV than player A?

None. Besides needing a lot more information, it's too short-term (assuming 1 year duration here) to come up with a meaningful number in my opinion.

**Alternately: what line would you place on player B winning more than A over the next 100 tournaments as well? What if B had averaged 3 buyins per tournament?

3:1 against. 9:1 against with the buyins.