[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate.

This is bad and you cant even think about calling. The most common type of hand your opponent will have here is a draw, and you have ~20bb stack left. If you call, regardless of what type of draw your opponent has (or pair), its unlikely you are the favorite. This fold is trivial IMO.

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A'ight, I guess I'm dense, but I just don't see why the call is so bad. I need to win approximately 45.5% of the time in order for it to be break-even in terms of chip equity.

Here's a sketch of the hands that I'd assign to my opponent when he pushes:

Set 5%
Two Pair 5%
Big Flush Draw 20%
One Pair >=7 35%
One Pair <=6 10%
Overcards w/o other draws 15%
QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 1%
QJ (other), 9%

And my equity against those hands, with a few simplifying assumptions.

vs Set: 35%
vs Two Pair: 44%
vs Big Flush: 32%
vs One Pair >=7: 48%
vs No Pair: 57% **
vs One Pair <=3: 57% **
QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 15%
QJ 45%

That works out to 45.6%. My draw is more robust than it looks, because I tend to pick up pairing outs when he has cards that would counterfeit my straight/flush outs.

So I think it's as close to breakeven as it gets in terms of chip equity.

Really, I think the question is whether it is +EV in terms of cash equity. It seems to me that the prize structure is such that I'd tend to favor the risk-loving move, all else being equal.

The last thing to consider would be player skill. My feeling at the time was that I was a signficantly better player than the Button, who was reckless enough that he might well have provided me with a better opportunity to double through. OTOH, I am not a tremendously experienced tournament player, especially in shorthanded situations, and I'd imagine that the solid SB was a somewhat better player than I was.

** I'm giving him credit for having one diamond higher than mine.