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Old 12-20-2005, 12:31 AM
RunDownHouse RunDownHouse is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 165
Default Re: Iffy turn raise.

Two cold callers means either a K, a strong draw - something like JT or T8 - or a pair plus a bckdoor, in that order of likelihood. Bet/3bet from SB means TP at the very, very least, and more likely two pair.

So you're behind SB and putting in two. If your coldcallers are on Ks then you're probably still good, although there's some small chance they have a better K or two-paired on the turn. Small, but its there because you're readless. If they had a strong draw, they either made it or turned a pair. If they had a pair plus a draw (not counting K+draw), the either paired or two paired or improved their draw.

Can we assume then that everyone drawing has at least 4 and more likely 8+ outs against you? Some of those are shared, and some of them are taken away by the J in your hand, so you have to think about that. And besides dodging their outs, you're almost certainly behind a SB that bet/3bet and led a somewhat threatening turn.

Can anyone help me with the math on this? I really feel like hero is putting a good amount of money in with the worst of it given these assumptions, but my assumptions may be off, math is hard, and wine is good.
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