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Old 11-19-2005, 02:13 AM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 146
Default Re: Temp Results

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then why the [censored] are you including the blind occurences?

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I'll illustrate why with an example.

Let's say I want to know what my winrate could bewith K9o in the cutoff if I opened with it. Let's say that I've been dealt it 300 times in the cutoff and I've folded it 300 times. I'm making 0.00 bb/hand with K9o in the cutoff. What does that tell me about whether it's playable in the cutoff or not?

Absolutely nothing.

As I stated in another post in this thread, the strength of a hand outside the blinds is correlated with its strength in the blinds. A hand that is playable UTG for instance, usually breaks even or better in the blinds, whereas a hand that you muck first in on the button usually does pretty close to it's "loss floor" (roughly (-0.12)bb/hand in the big blind in 6 max) in the blinds. Since many people don't play the four hands I listed in the cutoff, and some don't even play them on the button (I have 130k hands of 5-10 as a significant winner without ever playing any one of those four hands on the button), I believe I will get a BETTER idea of their strength OUTSIDE the blinds by incorporating data INSIDE the blinds then by not incorporating this data.

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I still don't see how you can possibly get any meaning out of these numbers. Blind play is way different from non blind play, and some people may only be playing T9 in the blind, and never out of the blinds. This will skew results one way or the other, and will not give you a "overall" picture. I really think you need to have seperate winrates for in blind, and out of blind play with the different hands.

Please, just give me an example of potential long run results, and tell me what those results would mean. For example, lets say K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9 lose -.04, -.07, -.08, -.09 respectively. What meaning do you draw out of that?
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