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Old 12-09-2005, 05:05 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

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if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).

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Why is it, you only respond to my posts when they involve an equation?

You are 100% correct. In reality I think that using the numbers I did to come up with an estimate of hands he will raise with is pure BS. I just needed to put some numbers on it. I doubt many players fully randomize like you suggested. But probably more to do with position and # of players at the table than anything else.

But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?
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