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Old 12-09-2005, 04:59 PM
PrayingMantis PrayingMantis is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 11,600 km from Vegas
Posts: 489
Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

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if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).
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