[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
how often does he have to fold a hand that's beating me to make this bluff right on the river?

[/ QUOTE ] About 31% of the time.

So you believe that this fish who had, say, JJ, will fold more than 31% of the time on the river to your all-in push?

Think about his situation on the turn:
You bet 730.
The pot was 1660.
You had 1045 left in your hand.

Now, even the slowest fish knows that you are probably going to push the river. He calls your bet.

Now, think about his situation on the river:

You bet 1045.
The pot is 3430.

The bet is about the same. The pot is twice as large. Why in the world would he call your bet on the turn and fold on the river, when he knew you were going to push the river?

This is what I think:
If he had Adxx, he is folding to your river bet 100% of the time.
If he had JdJx, he is folding to your river bet at most 20% of the time.

And really, if you feel that the push on the river is justified, you should ask yourself this question: How did I get into this situation where I am pushing bottom pair on the river against a calling station who has already called 2 decent-sized bets . Because that’s a pretty crappy situation to be in, and it didn't have to be that way.