Re: Results
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Obviously I don't make this flop bet often. Thing is on this particular hand I see two players who I have position on who it really looks to me like they have given up on their hand, and if they havent are likely to cr anyway and end the hand. I really thought the bet had a chance of winning close to the requisite 1/3 times, which is fine since i only bet 1/2 pot. Also, while I'm not planning on betting the turn when I make the flop bet, its certainly a possibility, but really I never expected to have the chance. If the guy behind me calls, I'm done, if the guy who likes to cr the turn calls, I'm done, and if anybody crs the flop, I'm done. The one outcome which might lead me to bet the turn happens...so I followed through (which I won't always do here).
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Well...as somebody pointed out the last time I posted something like this, it's not 1 in 3. You have to pick it up 1 in 3 times that you do *not* have the best hand, so in this hand, for example, you could have checked through the flop, bet the turn, checked behind on the river and beat his AK anyway (because I really think that's what he had.)
But OK, let's say it's still close to 1 in 3. They have 6 cards between them. Any big diamond, queen, red mid pair, or sometimes completely random stuff at least calls, plus the PFR has a small but significant chance of checkraising something like black aces, a pure whiff, etc.
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Well thats just mean and uncalled for.
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Haha. Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I think part of the concept is there, though...it's a hand where at least your backup plan is to follow through. I don't like that much at all because most of what calls the flop calls/CR's the turn.
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Your 'bluff' here had better be with the best hand because he's not folding so much as red JJ, IMO.
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Where does that come from? What leads you to believe he will call with these hands? This is a pretty important point because my bet is based on folding out 99/10/JJ with the draw. I really think he is folding these hands here (as he should).
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Vs. a thinking player, he called 3/4 pot/almost half your stacks on a blank and is getting something like 2.5:1 on a river that changed nothing. If he played JJ this way vs. a LAG as a semi-trap/bluff catcher, he's not folding it now. (See Strassa's hand)
Vs. a bad player, "I have JJ and I called the turn so I call the river".
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One other question. In your original post you put a small chance of bluffing in my range of hands. What situations make that small percentage up? Are you saying that the times I'm bluffing in this spot are deffinitionally times I've screwed up the hand (and consequently while my bluffing frequency in this spot is small, it should be zero) or are there situations where bluffing would be correct....If so, what are those situations since you don't think this is one.
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Not necessarily...I can see you playing (for example) AdKx or AxKd this way yourself sometimes and I think that is a better hand to do this with. You're much less bluffing and much more semibluffing the flop/turn, and his most likely hand on the river actually ties you so now your push is +EV all by itself.
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