Re: Interesting Hand
OK, I'm baffled. Why is this hand interesting? It looks like spewage, or mabye it's a delicate application of bluff theory?
Assume that you need both CO and UTG to fold before showdown. There's a chance you'll improve to the best hand before the river
On the flop, one of your opponent needs to fold to your 3-bet more than one every 13 times, or 7.6% of the time.
On the river, you need the other opponent to fold to your 3-bet more than one every 14.25 times, or 7% of the time.
The probablilites of BOTH of these happening are less than half a percent. You aren't getting those odds anywhere in this hand.
You are even money against a single random hand on the river with your holding. Against three random hands you are a 9-1 underdog to have the best hand.
You won't fold people out enough to make this bluff profitable, despite the size of the pot.
Combined with your draws, the semi-bluffs on the flop and turn might make your play slightly +EV, but I'm not convinced.
River play is fine, you might as well get some advertising value for it.
I'm still interested in a couple of things in this hand. How often did you expect CO and UTG to fold to a bluff, and what limit were you playing?
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