[Wynton]

Bob,

I actually take this line a fair amount, against such an opponent. And I adopt the same reasoning that you have expressed. But frankly, I do fear that it might be a leak.

One part of the equation I have yet to figure out seems pretty simple (for a math person). I want to get a sense of the chances that villain has a pair on the flop. I know that if his pockets are unpaired, he flops a pair about 1/3 the time. But if we add that number to the percentage of time that villain started with a pair, what is the total number?

I think the answer might affect my approach. If I thought that there was a 50% chance villain has a pair on the flop - one way or another - then it sure seems better to go to war on the flop, since he's not ever going to fold.

I realize this doesn't account for draws. But this analysis would help, at least, when the board isn't drawy. In your case, I suppose the board might be considered semi-drawy.