I actually didn't read your analysis the first time through (good work, btw, it shows that it's close). A couple things:

You did forget 45s (which we passed). I think you gave way too much weight to the FD 3 betting. I think you were way too conservative with the number of K combos. The weight for 3 betting with a K should be close to 100%. And this final thing, which I'm not sure about, but I think you're actually calculating the K combos wrong. Since the turn bet doesn't give us any information we should be going by how likely he was to hold a hand on the flop.