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EZ Push against his likely range.

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I'd normally expect villain to have a tighter range than this.



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I agree. Against this range, is it still -$EV?

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The tighter his range, the more likely he is to call a push, and given that playing JJ against his K5s here (if you knew that's what he had and he'd call a push) is -0.5% $EV, the tighter he is the worse it is for hero.

Basically, for hero's push here to be a good play, villain has to fold a lot of the semi-crap hands he could be stealing with, and given villain's raise and stack (and donkish image) he's probably, or very nearly, justified (or will think he is) in calling a push with a lot of those semi-crap hands.

All these results are due primarily to the stack situation and villain's relative cluelessness. If hero swaps stacks with villain, this becomes an easy push even if villain falls in the tight range in SNGPT (66+/ATs+/AJo+). Likewise, if villain has shown he'll fold to a re-steal in the past, pushing over the top off him will work (and probably with much lesser hands than JJ).

To change the question a little, how would everyone feel about hero calling if villain had open pushed?