View Single Post
  #17  
Old 12-20-2005, 09:49 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Spewing? Do you ever fire the third bullet here?

No, I'm pretty sure a good 90%-95% of the players in this particular game would have folded to the 60 in that spot. I was unlucky enough to pick the wrong guy at the wrong time. I wouldn't normally make the C/R here into this many people, or the second barrel bluff. Pushing 160ish into the 80 pot looks like a set here to him?? Quite frankly, I'm not sure if anything looks like anything to him, as he obviously isn't a thinking player.

The math here is simple though. Getting 2:1 on money, and am 4.2:1 to improve seeing one card. I do have some backdoor draws, but this isn't going to help only seeing one card. If I pick up OESD draw, I will be able to call something like a pot sized bet on turn, but that doesn't erase the mistake I made on flop. To make up for the incorrect immediate odds, you need implied odds, and the implied odds are bad here because the draw is an obvious one that even non-thinking players will be scared of.

There are too many people here in this pot to lead out, as I am unlikely to fold an ace, if I get raised I will be playing a big pot OOP (which is what I mistakingly did here) chasing a 9 outer that I will likely only get to correctly see one card with, and if someone just calls, playing the blank OOP will be awkward as well.

All this being said, I think folding the flop is the best. Don't have odds to just call. Raising the 9 outer here sucks, as you are OOP and theres too many other people in the hand.
Reply With Quote