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I think the play is good against someone who could fold a better hand. However, you definitely do not want a 3 outer to fold. Whether you want a 6 outer to fold depends on the probability he calls a river bet no matter what the river is. If getting a 6outer to fold here is +EV, it is only marginally so. Keep in mind that you also forfeit a 2 outer with nice implied odds by raising and folding to a 3bet. Not a major consideration, but a consideration nonetheless.

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yeah, you're right about folding a three outer.

wouldn't folding a 6 outer would be worth more than the shot at seeing the river to spike an 8 though?

i'm not great at math but here goes.

5.5 bbs after he bets the turn + 2 (his bet + call of my raise) on the river if i spike, so 7.5 * (2/46) = .32 bb

5.5 + 2 for my raise = 7.5 * (6/46) = .97 bb - pretty significant considering he'd be getting priced in to call if he knew his outs were clean.

is that right? forgive me if the math is off and feel free to correct it if you see any mistakes.

there is also the chance that he follows through on the river with an A high bluff, or he check/calls UI on the end. i'm not sure how to work that out though.