Re: Almost every International Index Fund is near its 52 wk high.
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Does the estimated 500 billion USD repatriated really have that much of an effect on the 3 trillion dollar fx market? Who knows, but it ends at the end of this month.
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Well if you believe that annual $450B deficits cause our currency to depreciate, then it's reasonable to think that a one time $500B repatriation would reverse that for a year.
Another way of looking at the deficit issue isn't that we are devaluaing our currency through deficits. It's whether we are devaluing it faster than other governments, presuming they are running deficits as well. So the argument is that our $450B deficit is worse than most other leading countries, so the dollar should depreciate. A $500B inflow temporarily makes seem like our budget is balanced, hence the dollar appreciates vs. the other deficit running countries currencies. And as the temporary inflow ends, we should go back to depreciating again.
I'm sure this simplistic theory missing is a dozen other causative factors of various importance. But it seems to explain the dollars history vs. the Euro pretty well.
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