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Old 12-09-2005, 10:22 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

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I dont think this is really meant to be a resteal (kind of what I found so interesting in the analysis). I was suprised when I saw how little it mattered what hand SB held here. To start the hand, you think ATs...pretty good hand, he may be stealing, Im probably ahead...a push is good!

Yes, I think a push is +CEV. Probably in the range of 1.5-2.5xBB.

But here is the thing, wether or not this is play is expected to win you chips or not, really doesnt have much to do with the fact that we have ATs.

Our bet (22xBB) is a big preflop bet at this stage. It is pretty much as large as can be considered reasonable into a single 3.5xBB opening raise. So, since our bet is so large, we really limit the number of hands that are willing to call us. I think that we limit it to the point that ATs has negligble value. Without a hand like KQ or A9 in the calling range, we lose little value by changing our cards for 76s.

I disgaree with the push for different reasons, not the CEV of the play. I just found it interesting that our read on the villan was so important here.

If we had 10-12xBB, I think the quality of our hand is very important (we are going to be pricing in calls from KQ, A9, etc). But when we are this deep, we should be looking to make this move with 72 against the right opponent. All hands below AJ are close enough in equity that they arent going to swing this very far in either direction in terms of expectation.


Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

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We have alot of FE, true. But the hands that beat us (other than low PP) are coming along anyway, which again, drives home the point that ATs is pretty irrelevant.


It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

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I really disagree here. If we treated all situations like this as CEV = $EV, I would think that it would flow into winning SNG theory, which from what I can gather it doesnt.

With a flatter payout structure, I dont see why treating this like a party SNG from here on out wouldnt maximize my $ won. There are some winning players that will really lag it up early in a SNG, but in a situation like this, where we should assume players arent experts at playing 10xBB stacks, I dont see why we would. (that is assuming hero has a good grasp of the theories talked about on our STT forum)

I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.

[/ QUOTE ] The only way this could be true is if he only opened with hands that would call a 22xBB reraise, which cant be true.


Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.

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True, I was just trying to mock up a range, I dont really think there is any truth to it. I think this range would need to be generated from the type of player we thought he was, and how often this type of player will open from the CO with these stacks.


I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).

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There is no real point in putting him on exact cards to open here. Many players are (and should be) playing the position and players in the blinds here. If he thinks that they are tight, and has a decent image, it very well may be any two. He cant be thinking that he is playing any hands for value other than the very best, b/c pots at this level dont go to the flop very often.
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