Re: DERB
James,
FWIW I am sort of reserving judgement on the matter of DERB of being a "big winner" but I am pretty sure at this point that he is at the very least a winning player even if only marginally so. The fact that he is able to win at all in these games with that style is certainly worth looking into because it's so damn counterintuitive based on both my overall knowledge of the games he frequents and my specific knowledge of some of the crazy plays he makes.
I am certainly still open to the possibility, however, that there is something about the way his entire game fits together that enables him to be a big winner in these games. Clearly he makes lots plays that are most definately -ev in isolation, but obviously in a game as complex as limit holdem, ev doesn't exist in a vaccum and perhaps these plays are necessary components of an overall metagame that allows him to win big.
I think a detailed analysis of exactly where DERBs profit comes from (or perhaps more accurately stated, where he makes money that 17/12 types don't) would be VERY valuable. Unfortunately, I have neither the time, the requisite knowledge of database software, nor possibly even a sufficient level of expertise, to conduct such a study. The bitch of it all is that if someone does competantly conduct an analysis along these lines, and happens to find some very valuable insight, it's unlikely that it would ever end up getting posted here.
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