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Old 12-01-2005, 03:09 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

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I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

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Are you that sure someone is on AA or KK? The call does look make it seem like a possibility, but with all that money in the middle...

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i think the button almost never folds here. i think he has exactly AQ once in a while, and less than AQ rarely.

it's hard to know what the CO has. i know that i would not try to make this big squeeze play with a strong hand. i'm not getting cute with 67s very often - it's almost always AQ+ / 99+, and usually AK / JJ+. but i recognize it wouldn't be a totally crazy play for him to have 67s, so hero has some chance of having 33%+ equity.

Ks Ac 551161 40.21 783903 57.19 35690 2.60 0.415
Ad Qh 274700 20.04 1060364 77.36 35690 2.60 0.213
7h 6h 509203 37.15 857723 62.57 3828 0.28 0.372

this, i think, is very unlikely though.

more likely is that both have QQ-, which is good but not great.

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

it's moderately better to push against these hands than fold, but not by much.

against AQ and TT:

Ks Ac 464795 33.91 887112 64.72 18847 1.37 0.345
Ad Qh 274958 20.06 1076949 78.57 18847 1.37 0.207
Td Th 612154 44.66 754390 55.03 4210 0.31 0.448

here you're in ok shape for the main pot. if TT is the bigger stack, you're in kinda bad shape for the side (one A is killed), but if it's AQ, then you're in great shape.

AK v KK v QQ is very bad regardless of who has which hand (two K's are dead if you're "racing" with the deeper QQ guy).

Ks Ac 344965 25.17 1017209 74.21 8580 0.63 0.254
Qd Qh 244851 17.86 1120235 81.72 5668 0.41 0.180
Kd Kh 772358 56.35 589816 43.03 8580 0.63 0.566

and i don't even need to mention if one has AA.

there is, however, 4.3k in dead money in the middle (assuming no antes). that's about the only redeeming feature of this push. but i think that the button is going to KK/AA quite frequently, so i have to fold. you're not getting your money in that great unless no one has a pair (or if button has AQ- you're in pretty good shape) and you're getting in horrible if button has the likely AA.

the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.
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