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Old 12-19-2005, 09:46 AM
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Default Re: How low would you go...

My ICM calculations puts the value of your stack at ~550K if you fold and ~650K if you call and win. Obviously you win 250K if you call and lose.

So if we want to find out the chance you need to win (we'll call that P) to break even, we get 0 = P * 100K - (1 - P) * 300K. That translates into P = 75%.

So calling with a dominating hand is wrong, since you're usually only about 70% to win those. You basically need an overpair to his two cards. And without running stuff in Pokerstove, I'd say only AA and KK gives you good enough odds against his range.
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