[jubeirm]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no less the 31 registrered tournaments in sucsession where I have been 70% favourite or better to win the showdown on flopp and hence gotten all my chips in the middle and been called with not one showdown won. And in 28 of the cases it was HU

I am rapidly loosing faith and all kinds of crap thoughts are creeping into my mind

I feel physically ill, and this is not bs post I need someone to elaborate on variance please.

Best regards Stokken

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When I first read this I thought there was no way. A simple calculation tells us just how impossible this is:

(.3)^31 = 6.1 x 10^(-17) = 1/[1.6 x 10^16]

Those are some long odds! Ok, so this is obviously not what is happening. How often do you find yourself all-in? Lets assume that everytime you are all-in you are also a 70% favorite. Perhaps you are doing this a few too many times per tournament?

Suppose you go all-in with a 70% chance to win each time at most 5 times in every tourny. In other words if you survive all 5 you win. What are the odds of busting out early:

1 - (.7)^5 = 83.19%

The probability of doing this 31 times in succession is 0.003331888 or 300:1, which is not so impossible. In fact if you own excel you can build a quick table of such probabilities with three columns:

A = "Times All-in" = 1,2,3,...
B = "Prob. of Busting" = 1-(.7)^A
C = "Prob. of 30 in a Row" = B^31
D = "Odds X:1" = 1/D

You should find that between A=10 and A=11 your chances of doing this around 50%. Suddenly your run is not so astronomically impossible. The "take away" from all this is that perhaps your playing style leads you to these finishes. I would be curious to know/see:

How big are the tournaments?
How often is your stack the shortest, 2nd shortest at the table?
How often do you go all-in during the tournament?
How often are you REALLY a favorite in these all-ins?

I can't say how to fix or what to do about this. But I know its a genuine possibility because its exactly how I play. I've been playing mid-sized tournaments and spend a lot of time getting ground down (by my over tight play?) till I am forced to go all-in, sometimes not as a 70% favorite. If I survive and double up then the slow decline begins again till I go all-in. Rinse and repeat. Take a look at your games if you have them over the past 30 tournaments and let me know what you find. Hope this helps.

--Jubei