[Chris Daddy Cool]

i just looked over the AQ hand again and changed my mind about it.

its a 3-bet. i don't think you have to worry about AA, QQ is a maybe, but those two hands seem unlikely with the third player in. i don't think most players (esp good ones) would miss the chance to cap with the third player in.

he also raised UTG+1 so i think that limits the amounts of combinations of KJ he can have. let's say he'd raise all his suited KJ's and anywhere from none to some of his KJo's. so that leaves anywhere from 4 to 16 combinations of KJ, though imo its a lot closer to 4 than 16.

meanwhile there are 12 combos of AQ, though likely 6 (if the other guy has an ace too) with some combinaitions of AT or a trickily played AK.

even if you account for some of the times he'll have a set over set, with the 3rd player in i think this is a 3-bet for sure. if you get capped, then it becomes a really interesting decision. i think you can fold the river UI, but i would just remedy that by filling up on the river.