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Old 01-20-2005, 10:04 AM
unfrgvn unfrgvn is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Dallas, Tx
Posts: 48
Default Re: Flush + pair on turn...your move

I would have mucked pre flop. Since you didn't, there is 300 in the pot on the flop. You get about as good a flop as you can reasonably expect for your hand, but your opponent bets just over the pot. Unless one of the other players comes along, you are getting only 2-1 on a 3-1 shot, IF your flush is good. Of course, if one of the other players comes along there is a good chance your flush draw is no good. So I think it is a clear fold here. I think if you want to continue in the hand, you must push all in. If he has AK or AQ you might get a fold. I would be reading him for an over pair here, with AK, AQ, or AJ possible.
Now you've called the flop, making the pot 1000. You've caught a card that probably gives you more outs and he pushes, which is in effect a 535 bet, since that is all you have left. So your choice is to call getting 3-1 odds or fold, damaged but not hopeless. To me his push further defines his hand as an overpair or AJ. I don't think he has a better flush draw, because he has been trying to deny you odds to chase the flush. If had the nut flush draw, I think he would bet smaller. In that case you have 14 outs (2 tens, 3 eights, 9 clubs), which makes you about 30% to make your hand. You are still not getting odds to call, though it's close. Fold and try to come back.
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