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You can break the game of poker down into simply: What do I have? Does this beat my opponent? If not, if I bet, will he fold?

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This is a pretty awesome way to think about poker. You left out an important part though. When deciding to call a bet with a gutshot or a flush draw, I just ask myself, will I hit it?

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But if you break his question of "If I bet will he fold" down to its ultimate level it encompasses all the things his opponant will have to decide. Pot odds, hitting that gutshot, etc. His bluff must be at the right level and he must sell it well enough that he isn't called. I think that reading books on poker and tells would make him a better overall player and able to make this decision correctly enough times to pay off.