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Old 09-14-2005, 09:36 AM
grinin grinin is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 8
Default Re: At Party: January 2005 sign-ups, less than 30% still play there(+more

I agree with the majority of your post other than the Edit at the bottom. The popularity alone of 6 max tables is not evidence that multitablers is not a problem. People will play 6 max because it is an "action game, or they are "luckier" at 6 max, or because there "aren't as many pros" or any other of a host of reasons. The bad players don't realize that they are losing money faster just like they don't realize that the rake at party's lower limits is bleeding them faster than the rake at so and so.

The crux of the matter is the overall growth of the online poker industry. It is pretty clear that we are on the downward slope of industry growth. Although this could be Party specific, I doubt it. With a falling growth rate, games will get tougher.

For example: Assume no new players were ever allowed to join into online poker and the player base remained static. Existing players would be allowed to redeposit or withdraw. Eventually fish would bust out, maybe even multiple times, but the player base is going to steadily get tougher. At some point the pro player will find that his skills are not enough to overcome the rake and the improved player base and he will leave. There would become a point where the fish that do redeposit are simply feeding the best pros that have decided to stick it out.

My thesis:
Online poker games will get tougher as the growth of the online industry slows. Fewer pros will be profitable and will get "real jobs". As the growth rate stabilizes there will become an equilibrium of pros and new fish arriving daily to support them.
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