Re: standard $109 AK hand?
ICM:
fold=.2403
call and lose=.0851
call and win=.3853
Against AQ+,99+ I will win 48.7%. Against 66+,ATs+,AJo+ I will win 52.1% of the time.
according to ICM, if I win 52% of the time that averages to a value of .2412, which is about .1% higher than folding. So it looks like this is either an almost break even call or an unprofitable one if he is on a tight range. Furthermore, I think that ICM overvalues my strength when I call and lose because I am UTG and will take a blind that cripples my remaining strength.
so now the follow up questions:
1. First, do you agree with the above math? It looks like this is a fold to me. I would think that this guy would be suicidal to be bluffing my UTG raise with a hand like A9 or 55.
2. If I don't want someone to come over the top of my UTG raise, than what do I want from raising UTG? Do I really want the button to just call and have to play what will likely be ace high OOP in a big pot? Maybe pushing is more profitable than simply raising here. Or, perhaps its best to get tricky and limp utg. What do you think? I feel like i've backed myself into a corner by raising utg.
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