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Old 01-04-2005, 07:39 PM
texasrattlers texasrattlers is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Texas
Posts: 228
Default Re: Discounting Outs

[ QUOTE ]
With so much action on the flop, you can assume someone has a better flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this. I think your flush draw is very live here and will be the nuts if it hits (of course I can say this w/ extra confidence since I know the results [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). But just analyzing the situation:

You have 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Only 11 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] left in the deck. Chances of any player being dealt two [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is about 4.5%. And there are only 5 other players in the hand. The fact that they are in the hand does not signifcantly raise the chances that they are holding suited cards since people limp w/ a lot of different cards than suited.

Also, looking at it empirically, what percentage of times has your low ranked flush actually lost to a bigger flush. For me I would say it is less than 10%.

So, I think you made a good play by pushing.
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