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Old 10-02-2003, 06:18 AM
Lexander Lexander is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 47
Default Re: Thoughts on Expected Value

To answer a couple of questions.

I don't have a specific figure for my results with AA at the current time, only my more recent records. In some senses, the more important issue of AA is the fact that I find myself struggling with tilt with the hand.

All I have is a general fragmentary record of the hand.

I began recording it when I went 0 for 12 with the hand. I won 2 times, then went another 0 for 6. Since that time, my win rate with the hand seems to be right about 25%, since my best calculation is that I am 7 for 29 with the hand since that opening streak.

It is a small number of samples, and my comments probably aren't completely correct, but in Limit this hand has been a regular underperformer. I have not won a big hand with it, and have lost a couple of big hands with it (AA over KK when Q7s stayed in to the river and hit two pair comes to mind). I have folded it twice, both times I was correct in that I was beat. The 40% I quoted was based upon what others have said is the generally appropriate win rate in Limit in general.

In NL SnG's, my records are not as established. I have only lost with it 3 times but I don't have a detailed count of how many times I played it.

But, lets exclude the fact that my win record is probably below average (it happens with such a small number of samples). My basic problem remains. I am simply not generating large pots with this hands, particulary when I play the hand with a lot of raises, which I try to do. Most of the time the only time when the pot gets big is when somebody really hits the flop with it and re-raises. I am willing to fold in that situation, fortunately. I might even be generating a small amount of PosEV in general, but not a lot. I will go ahead and record the results in the future as suggested to verify this more completely.

But combined the overall result of winning small pots and losing large pots, I am not doing that well. Once you add the 'tilt' effect you run into my real problem. Suddenly I start to wonder if playing Q8s isn't such a bad idea and I have to remind myself not to play it.
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