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Old 08-26-2005, 11:13 AM
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Default Top set: I gotta know.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(Villain)</font> calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, Hero calls, Button folds, UTG+2 calls.


In hold'em I would never dream of chasing a boat, but the day I played this hand, I had read somewhere that a flopped top set has about a 40% chance to fill up. Incredibly, that means it's correct to call down with 3 people or more in the hand -- especially one off the button and the low possibility dwindling. (Right?)

Bottom line: I hit my out, rivered the case Q for 11BB. Villain had 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and had flopped the nut flush. Twodimes says I was 27% to win on the turn and 20% on the river. It felt weird, but I think I'm beginning to understand these odds. Can anyone point out anything I did wrong on this hand?
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